tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC June 11, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
address those developers a little later on this morning pacific time. we're asking you to complete this sentence. forget apple tv or a new operating system. today apple is actually going to unveil what? angela writes, a windows 8 killer. what else have we got? joe writes, the i mobile. keeps baby entertained for hours. hooks them for life. we'll see what happens. jon fortt, bottom line, your predictions? >> i cloud and facebook integration. possibly the sleeper. big announcement today. big impact for both stocks. both up. facebook up. >> apple gaining steam intraday, too. i know you're going inside to the belly of the beast and feed us headlines this afternoon. jon fortt along with me here in san francisco. that does it for us here on "squawk on the street." at noontime we'll send it back to hq and the "fast money halftime report." >> thanks so much. four hours to go until the close. here's where we stand. so much for the spain bailout. more red than green on the board today. there's a look at the major averages. dow industrials off by .25. others holding on negative
territory as well. gold and oil, yes, we're following commodities closely today. after an initial pop they're both mixed. crowd oil down .75%. gold sly slightly higher. trading the commodity drop. legendary investor jim rogers joins us for the full hour to talk commodities, europe, and the possibility of a recession in the u.s. trading china. should you be buying the dip? john rutledge of rutledge appal joins us on the take. waiting on apple's next big thing. one hour left to trade the stock ahead of the big developers conference. ke welcome. >> joe terranova. i'm watching financials. >> i'm watching 1335 in the s&p cash as well as gold. >> i'm steve cortez. i'm watching italy. >> jon najarian. i'm watching ni vid ya and verizon because of the worldwide developers conference. >> all right. joining us for the full hour is our very special guest, jim rogers. a renowned international
investor. chairman of rogers holdings. he is an outspoken bull on commodities in asia earlier in his career. he also co-founded the quantum fund with george soros. you're putting us to sartorial shame with that summer suit today. >> i live in the tropic. just got off a plane from china. here i am. >> we heard from the traders. what's the most important thing you're watching today. >> i'm watching the whole world. i'm very worried about what's happening with central banks. central banks are printing a lot of money. it's not going to be good for any of us unless you own the right things. let's hope i own the right things. >> so much for the spain bailout. why do you think the euphoria has been so short-lived today. >> scott, it's nothing more than pushing the thing out into the future. it's making the situation worse. the solution to too much debt is not more debt. this is the most insane thing i've ever heard. it's going to make the collapse when it comes even worse. be careful. you should be not careful. you should be worried. >> what would you have done? what was the right answer? >> let them go bankrupt. i would let all those people --
scott, the way the system is supposed to work, when you fail, you fail. competent people come in, take over the assets, reorganize and start over. what we are doing in the west, we're taking the assets from the competent people, giving them to the incompetent people and saying, okay, now you compete with the competent people with their money. it's absurd economics. it's absurd morality. it's absurd economics. >> that would be your same argument as it relates to greece, then? >> of course. >> we're looking forward to elections in less than a week. >> greece should be the first to go bankrupt. let greece go bankrupt. and then the others would realize, okay, guys. we got to shape up. if we don't shape up, we're finished. that would be a good lesson for europe. good lesson for the west. and then the euro would be a very strong currency and we should buy all the euros we can. >> despite all of that and as negative as that could be perceived as, you know, you sounding, you're long commodities. you still believe in that story. you're long various currencies as well. so you're looking for opportunity in making money on
the long side of things, too. i want to make that clear. you're not shorting the whole world and running into the jungle. >> no, no, no. i'm long a lot of stuff. but, scott, we in the west have made some terrible mistakes in the past 30 or 40 years. we have run up staggering debts. you don't just run up staggering debts and one day wake up and say, oh, well, we made a mistake. now everything is okay. somebody has to pay the piper. you know who it is? you, me and everybody watching this show. >> you said you just got off the plane from china. there was a lot of data out over the weekend. are you a china bull? >> i own chinese shares. i own the currency. i like to buy chinese shares when they collapse. they've been doing nothing for the last three years. >> for most of the people who say china's heading for a hard landing, you don't buy that? >> some chinese property, chinese real estate, may be heading for a hard landing. the chinese government has been trying for three years to make it have a hard landing. they've been trying to drive prices down. but other parts of the chinese
economy are going to continue to boom. if you're an environmental treatment or water treatment or agriculture in china, you don't care if people in shanghai go bankrupt. you're making too much money. you're having too much fun. >> we'll talk about opportunity in china with you later throughout the show. john rutledge is going to join us as well. knows china as well as you and others certainly do. let's hit the markets. averages opened this morning in the green. on the new spanish bank aid deal. the market has failed the hold on to the initial pop and is now in the red. how big of a red flag, cortez, do you see that today? >> big red flag. i'll tell you, one week ago at this exact time, i was loading the boat on the long side amidst all the doom and gloom that we heard just a week ago. but in this bipolar market, it doesn't take very long for things to change quickly. and last night we saw the opposite of that. we saw euphoria over a supposed solution. i agree with jim rogers. this is not a solution for europe. i think the price action is proving that. the fact that spain was up 6% n
the day and is now down on the day, that's the worst finish i can remember since greg norman blew the masters a few years ago. >> doesn't that mean you should be selling stocks? good news comes out, it goes up and collapses. isn't that a negative sign? >> i'm saying yes. i'm saying i am selling stocks. whereas a week ago i was very long, i am the exact opposite now. i am quite short. risk assets generally including stocks. >> joe terranova, how do you see it today? >> i'm not ready to cast a spell on stocks and say all of them. i agree with lot of jim's comments. spain, what do they do in terms of being competitive? how do they generate growth? it all comes back to a euro/dollar which continues to be under pressure. i want to look at verizon. i want to look at at&t making 52-week highs today. where am i actually trading? i'm adding to whole foods, domestically oriented. disney 52-week high today. even in the financials which i talked about at the beginning of the show i like a usb here.
domestic exposure. >> joe, you're buying things because they make new highs? i thought you were supposed to buy low. >> we wrote a book called "buy high, sell higher." >> you didn't realize i was going to have a right hand man to put you on the spot. >> that's a new rule for me. >> i think what markets are very properly now focusing on today is italy. let's even say for a moment that spain for the near term is taken care of. it may be for the very near term. but right next on deck is italy which needs even more money. i think the italian market showed us that today. the italian market was actually the first of them to go negative. by the way, italy is on the hook amazingly almost for a fifth of the spanish bailout. so talk about robbing peter to pay paul. it's not even robbing peter. it's robbing peter's broke brother to pay paul. this is simply a scheme that does not work. european countries, italy and spain both, they are not growing in any sense. they're not growing demographically and they're not
growing in gdp. they can't support the debt. >> grasso on the floor of the stock exchange, what are you watching today. be careful. rogers came to play ball today. >> jimmy and i always play on the same team right now. s&p cash. 1335 level. that's where we ran into resistance today. i'm also looking at the gold miners that i'm long. you know, mr. rogers could talk to that as well. we've seen them just smacked around. i no e h e wants to buy the actual physical gold. that's where i am. i'm looking at buying it on the dip if we see any of that dip. >> steve, how much dip will it be? i do want to buy more. i own gold. i'd like to buy more. how much further down will it go? >> here's the thing. we've seen dips in the past, especially in the miners. they've underperformed. but i think maybe you could comment on this. when i read that blurb about germany refusing to loan any more money unless it's actually backed in gold. i think that's huge. >> well, no, of course it is. >> but everyone seemed to have missed it. that's why we saw the runup in these miners and in gold last
week. i think we're starting to see that back off of those levels. i don't think people are focusing on that statement, how big that statement is that you should buy any and all dips in gold. >> i will tell you -- no, they should not buy any and all dips. i'll tell you what worries me. the indians are thinking about sort of almost closing down the purchase of gold in india. as you know, india's the largest buyer of gold in the world. so if india does do something, gold could go to, i don't know, 1200, 1300. i'm asking you. you're the genius. >> jim, i'm glad you -- i'm glad you mentioned india. because the indian rupee just a week ago or so traded to an all time low versus the united states dollar. if we saw one thing in may it was that the safety trade is not running to gold. it's running to the u.s. dollar. the dollar soared against all the bric currencies. most of all against india. isn't a slowing emerging market world deflationary and actually gold negative? >> you're negative emerging markets. >> i'm short india.
i'm short most emerging markets because of what you just got through saying. but the problem, steve, if things slow down, what are governments going to do? they're going to print money. that's all they know to do. it's the wrong thing to do, but they're not very smart people. that's why they work for the government. they're going to go out and print money. if they print money, real assets are going to go through the roof. >> let's play right off of that and get to goldman sachs today. recommending investors go long commodities in a note released this morning. goldman says commodity price risks are shifting to the upside. sees prices rising for copper, gold, crude, gas and aluminum. obviously, jim, you agree with this call from goldman getting more bullish on commodities. prices have come down so much. we just talked about the crb index in the month of may was a disaster. down double digit percentage points. you know that as well as anybody. >> i certainly do. i'm long commodities. of course i know it. no. but i'm not -- i'm not a trader. you've got a group of people here who are good traders. i'm not. i'm -- i buy things and own them
for years. i don't pay attention to short-term fluctuations. when things go down i like to buy more. as i said, if gold goes down i'm going to buy more. i was asking steve how much further down it's going to go. i want to know when to buy, not when to sell. >> grasso, think about that for a while. we'll come back to you before you wrap it today. you're going to give jim rogers an answer. in the meantime, doc, your thought on the goldman call on commodities. >> i'll give you that, scott. i think they're about five days early. i don't think until sunday next week, six days early, that you really want to be diving in. because i think that will be a pivot point for the euro. i think it'll be a positive pivot. i'll also say from the bailout over the weekend they should have just backstopped these banks. instead of bailing them out and giving them money, they should have backstopped the depositors, scott. that way they could have done exactly what jimmy rogers is saying. they could have let them go bankrupt. you wouldn't have had the run on the banks as long as they said your money in that spanish bank,
that bank in italy or wherever, is still safe. that's been the problem that they haven't done that, giving money to the banks won't fix that. >> what happens on sunday? what's going to happen on sunday that i don't know about? >> you do know that the greek vote is going to be sunday and whether or not, of course, we get a communist takeover of greece or whether or not cooler heads prevail. they've already seen, jimmy, as we've all watched, what happens when they just tighten up austerity really hard. that's not going to be the ultimate solution for greece. but they do have to collect taxes. they haven't been doing that. who are gets in charge there is going to have to both have real estate and income taxes. they're going to actually collect it instead of just charge it and then not collect it. >> biggest question right now as it relates to where commodities go, is it europe, or is it china? import/export data was much better than expected. you just got back from china. plane touched down, what, less than 24 hours ago. you have the best read on the panel certainly about what's
happening there. >> i did just get off the plane. i may fall asleep. if i fall asleep, guys, wake me up. okay? no. europe's much more important. europe is three or four times bigger than the chinese economy. europe as a whole. no, no. china's doing a good job. you got to worry about europe and america more -- much more than china. coming up on "half-time" is apple's tim cook less than an hour away from revealing the next big thing that will propel the stock to new highs? the trade on that next. lost more "halftime report" with my right hand man jim rogers coming up. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank, like no-fee atms, all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments. a highly acclaimed credit card with 2% cash back into your fidelity account.
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hi. welcome back to "the halftime show." apple's worldwide developers conference is set to start within the hour. speculation is swirling about what big announcement apple will be making today, if any. and whether it could push the stock back to record highs. brian blair, principal at wedge partners, joins us now from outside the conference in san francisco. brian, so what are we to expect from tim cook in less than an hour here? how big of an announcement are we going to get? >> i think the briggest announcement is going to be they're putting retina screens, high resolution screens on the ipad and iphone into the macbooks. that's something that's never been seen before in a notebook computer. i think that's the first thing. second big announcement is facebook integration, i think,
into ios 6 coming out later this year. that's a really big announcement. thus far they've only integrated twitter. the third thing is apple's move into the mapping environment. google maps right now is the map supplier for the iphone and ipad. looks like apple is going to introduce their own map. >> but no tv? >> there's not going to be a tv announcement. it's very possible they make some announcements around the apple tv product. not a large 46-inch hanging on your wall tv but the hockey puck that they currently offer. i think it's possible they make some announcements around that. possibly they announce the ability for developers to actually make applications for that apple tv. >> how, then, will investors and how should my traders on the panel today view what happens out there and how should we trade it? >> you know, last tuesday i made the suggestion that i think this is likely to act as a catalyst for the stock. because of this event or because of europe, who knows, it's gone up. my view is that it's going to trade up for a little while. but the big concern right here is going to be how does iphone do for the june quarter and for the september quarter? i think until we get a sense for
just how much those units decline in june and september, until we get a sense for that, i don't think this is likely to make the run towards 700 that a lot of people talk about. i think we've got to get a better handle on what the impact is on iphone where people are kind of pulling back and waiting to buy the iphone ahead of iphone 5. we've got to get a better sense for that first. >> i'll bring the biggest apple watcher as a trader on my panel, jon najarian. doc? >> mr. blair, i happen to agree with you about maps. i think that's one of the big reasons we're seeing some of the other folks in the space fall off. most notably, of course, garmin. do you think beyond maps they might actually have something with perhaps this nividia chip? we're seeing chatter on blogs. it seems like it might be integrated in the macbook pro as well. >> you're exactly right. i do think we are going to see a return to nvidia. there's evidence other the
weekened and leaked images that looks like they'll move back to nvidia with the keplar product. thanks for having me. >> brian blair outside the worldwide developers conference in san francisco. doc, would that be your buy of the day? would it be nvidia on that expectation? >> like i said at the top, scott, i love nvidia because of the both moves in the stock, options, and leaked photographs that appear to show that chip in there, that keplar chip. additionally, verizon. a lot of put sellers and call buye buyers. i'm with joey t. i like verizon which i think getting even more upside than at&t does in the short term. that's why we're seeing call buying, put selling in verizon, vz. >> joe, how about apple here? >> apple, it was a great opportunity to buy it. it was the facebook atm back in may. no reason to sell it here. just pushed above the 50-day moving average. you'll hear a lot about
refreshing mac products to challenge windows 8. >> jim rogers, you're holding out. you still carry that blackberry around, i know, because i asked you. you're short technology. that means that you don't like apple in terms of the basket play. do you wish you owned it? >> i wish i'd owned it two years ago, yeah, of course i do. i wish i'd owned ibm in 1914, also. lots of things i wish. i can't pay my bills on that. no. technology is too expensive for me. i have to have some hedges. so i've shorted emerging markets around the world. i've shorted europe. and i've shorted technology in the u.s. >> okay. as jon said, garmin is getting hammered today. oppenheimer warning that apple's new mapping solution is weighing on shares of that company. so as google and apple go head to head on their mapping programs, are other companies in the gps market destined to fail? guys, steve grasso, take a look at garmin shares. off 4%. it'll be interesting to see how they exactly trade when and if
tim cook makes a big announcement out in san francisco. >> for me, i'd rather stick with apple at this point. we're on the show on friday, we said at 570 you should be a buyer of apple. here we are $17 later to the upside. i'd still be a buyer of apple. derivative plays, i said in the past. i'd rather buy upside plays in apple than play the eco system around apple. i think that's the best purchase name in the group. time for pops and drops. midday market movers that might not yet be on our radar. morgan stanley is the first one dropping 1%. >> capital markets trading the financials is incredibly important. morgan stanley is a name you got to watch here. a price gap from 12.95 to 13.95. hold there. >> grasso, navistar. >> terrible chart on this stock. most guys lined up this short. they couldn't even reap the benefits of being short because it was a real quick one or two-day flip the switch neck
breaking, back turning straight back up. if you had to play this, play it with a range bound. 30 1/2 to the upside. 26.80 to the downside. i don't know if you should be long or short. i wouldn't be long personally. >> dr. j., nvidia. at the highs of the day. getting a litlitle bit of a pop. >> i'll credit brian blair. i like the stock. i also like the ubs upgrade today, judge. they put a 15.50 target and a buy from neutral on it today. >> all right. granger dropping 4%. cortes? >> big slide in this name that is a supplier to construction sites. i think it's material. they disappointed with may sales figures. for me the takeaway is not to trade grainger but xhb. an oregon woman was recently busted for what could be the largest tax fraud in state history. crystal reyes filed her return
using turbotax, falsely claiming a refund of $2.1 million. miraculously, state officials granted her that full amount. preloaded on to a visa card. reyes then went on a shopping spree, buying a 1999 dodge caravan among other items. police caught the crook when she reported her valuable visa card was missing. we're back in a moment on "halftime." should you buy china on the dip? john rutledge joins our guest host jim rogers to dig deeper on that trade. we'll be right back. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason
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and find an arthritis treatment for you. visit celebrex.com and ask your doctor about celebrex. for a body in motion. all right. welcome back to "the halftime show." top three trades. there's the first one. up 2.5%. i'm talking about facebook. te spite a com score survey that shows the growth rate slowing in april to 5% year over year. that's the slowest since com score began keeping track in 2008, grasso. >> ewe've talked about this ad nauseam. >> we're going to keep talking about it. do it with a smile. >> it's a trading aspect.
i've been frustrated. we were all on the wrong side of the trade when the ipo came out. we all got turned around again. for me i have to look at the 52-week low which is 25.5. give myself a little bit of room. push it to 26.25. if it breaks that price, just get out of the name. if you want to take out a flyer, do so at this level. >> joey t., under armour. take a look at the chart. two for one stock split. nice gain of about 2.5%. >> great two for one stock split. the real story here is the domestic focus. continued depreciation in the stock. hitting on all cylinder. you saw that in recent earnings. stay long the name. use the stop or buy some puts. >> the vix which you always watch, doc. it is getting a pop today. also around 2%. >> yeah. last week, judge, that's when people took aggressively. one trader took a very big flyer, taking off his vix completely last monday. now we've got this week, people are rolling down some of those calls that would be up there at the 30 strike, rolling them down into lower strikes into the 20s.
not thinking we'll see such an explosive move, but wanting to maybe have a little protection on for the greek vote this sunday. >> all right. chinese stocks got a boost today after the government said may exports rose by double what analysts were expecting. obviously, jim, there's been a lot of concern over what the chinese economy is doing. if you had to make your best guess, where are we going to see growth come in? is it going to be closer to 8.5% or closer to, say, 6.5%? >> i don't pay any attention to those numbers, scott. i don't pay any ae tension to any government numbers. they're all made up. u.s. numbers, chinese numbers, everybody makes them up. china is growing. some parts of the chinese economy are going to continue to boom. some parts of the chinese economy are going to have a hard landing. property is going to have a hard landing probably. >> you just have to do your homework, then, and know which investments you're making and which specific areas are going to be more successful. you can't make a blanket statement, what you're saying about china anymore? >> i wish it were easy getting rich. you're exactly right. but you've got to do your home
work. this is a hard business we're in. >> the notion there's going to be a hard landing and a serious, serious issue in china, you just don't buy that. look, steve roach has been on the show. he's said as much. john rutledge has been on the show. he's going to be on in just a moment. has said as much. jim rogers standing next to me now, you say as much. what do you see there that leads you to believe that's going to be just fine. >> first of all, they've got huge savings, huge reserves. largest creditor nation in the world. staggering amounts of money. they saved a lot of money for a rainy day. when it starts raining, they're going to spend the money. these are hard working, energetic people on the rise again. don't get me wrong. there'll be setbacks. listen. you've got other things to worry about than worry about china. >> is that the most misunderstood part of the china story is the pickup in internal consumption and that's going to continue to grow? >> there is pickup in internal consumption, no question about that. i have no idea what the most misunderstood part -- >> there's so many. >> china's larger geographically
than the united states. it's a huge place. >> what commodity do you like the best right now? >> well, agriculture. i'm much more optimistic about agriculture than anything else mainly because it's so depressed on a historic basis. sugar is down something like 70% from where it was 37 years ago. these things are really cheap. >> yeah. the world needs to eat. we're going to get more into that certainly later on. right now let's bring in john rutledge. chairman of rutledge capital. welcome back to the show. >> good morning. hi, jim, how you doing? >> good morning. good afternoon. >> i've got another gentleman here, mr. worry about china. no hard landing. you're making investments as we speak, i would assume, based on the data we got over the weekend. >> the question you asked earlier is what do people most misunderstand about china. it seems to me the less time people spend there the more they worry about growth and all the numbers they come out rather than the actual activity levels. six months ago people were worried about chinese inflation and property bubbles and all
that. this month they're worried about hard landings. the fact is, yeah, infrastructure and residential real estate got jammed down pretty hard last year when they were worried about inflation. but the place is steaming along just fine. and it's not a place for tourists, though. it's not a place where someone can waltz in, buy a public stock and make money. you have to really know what the insiders are doing. >> import/export data absolutely blew away expectations. we're showing you the numbers on the screen. the actual not even close to what the estimates were. does that tell me you're loading up on the names that you love, the tried and true one in your port noel owe, fcx, freeport, some of the other mining names? >> about a month ago april numbers were coming out ugly. i sold a bunch of those names. rio, bhp, fcx, you know, pet row china is subject to price controls inside china. but now i suspect that some of that fear will go away. especially if you get a little
more stimulus later in the year. and, you know, you'll see those names come back. so, yeah, i'm buying them now. i'll buy more as i see more stimulus coming along. i think i agree with jim. i think the real story is europe and america have a bankruptcy issue. and china this year will grow an amount that's roughly equal to the entire gdp of either sweden or norway. that's not the part of the world that's going to blow up. >> jim, let's get you involved as well. what do you think about what mr. rutledge is saying. >> i prefer to buy china by either buying the currency, chinese stocks or commodities. because they have to buy commodities. if you've got nickel, they're going to pay you on time. they're going to take you to dinner. they're going to pay for dinner. they don't have the stuff. they have to have it. to my mind commodities are one of the best way to play china. >> john? >> yeah. that's the way i do it, too. i prefer to buy my stocks in places where there are judges in long black robes and contracts
in property rights. so you can do that with people who sell into china and basically get a tour guide that way. but if you have better knowledge inside, it's a better way to do it. there's also a big opportunity, those reserves jim was talking about, are now being deployed around the world to buy companies. so there's a huge private equity tidal wave that's moving out of china into north america and europe. part of it's to buy resources. and there's money to be made there, too. >> john, you know, it's steve cortes here. i think it's important we don't just cherry pick the china data. the prepond rens of china data over the past couple months has been foreboding. industrial production has been below 10% now two months consecutively. that's the first time that has happened in three years. i think it's no coincidence it's the first rate cut we've seen here in three years. the chinese government itself, i would add the australian government, i'm sure the aussie dollar is a consequence, those governments in the asia pacific
region are apparently seeing something you folks don't seem to be seeing which is a serious slowdown in china. >> well, the chinese government has done only modest stimulus so far. they've got a lot of room to do ut. the rates there are a lot higher than they are here. though they don't really mean the same thing as they do here. infrastructure spending has got room to go. the debt is about a quarter of u.s. levels or european levels. tax rates are rising as a share of gdp. incomes are rising faster than other numbers in sight, supporting the consumption numbers you see. so, yeah, there are issues. the issues are in fixed assets and real estate. but the overall economy is actually steaming along just fine. especially when compared with europe and the u.s. >> steve, if the rest of the world has problems, they're going to be worse than china. china's got big savings that they can fall back on. >> jim, i totally disagree. here's why. china simply is not becoming the consumer power that it has long been predicted to be. if you look at the percentage of
china's gdp that is consumer driven, that number is going down. and it is decelerating at a fast face which is unprecedented for an emerging economy. it's about 36%. if you look at other ems, they're well above. united states at 70%. i think they are totally behold ton the u.s. for growth. china is still -- >> that is not correct. because what that presumes is that growth is driven by exports. exports actually made a negative contribution to gdp this year. it's driven by investment spending. yeah, social housing, real estate is really big aswell. but it's the capital spending, not the exports, that are the key to chinese growth. >> i'm going to leave that, the last word. mr. rutledge, i'll give that to you. in the business, steve cortes, we call that a smackdown. that's neither here nor there. >> a smackdown i can't respond to? >> exactly. that's the kind of smackdown i like. coming up on "the halftime show" rim rogers thames us why you should fear 2013. and are the big u.s. banks about to get punched in the gut again?
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welcome to the show. >> thanks. hi to jim rogers who's in my new book, "the big win." >> what's your trade? >> i added to my short in steel. basically what you have is largest publicly traded steel company in china again cutting prices. this is eight weeks of price declines. there's one thing about an economic slowdown is that steel does not slow down at all. so there is a lot made of the fact that steel did not guide lower at their analyst day last week. that's actually a big negative. because they refused. i listened to the call. they refused to talk about the quarter or guidance whereas they typically do give a mid-quarter update. so, to me, they have, i would say, cole vesolvency issues in f bankruptcy. huge debt, not as much equity and prices are collapsing. >> if you're short, put on before the trade today. certainly looks like a successful one thus far, weiss. thanks for calling in. >> thanks. >> steve weiss with the trade today. you wanted to wrap up the
conversation we were having with john rutledge and jim rogers on commodities. specifically related to a trade you like in oil. >> yeah. we lost john. jimmy can certainly talk to this. we're talking about oil. and i agree with jimmy that the opportunity may be presenting itself for a buy. goldman sachs talks about a 40% spike. ly tei will tell you this. i think we are 20 to 30 days outside of potentially getting a 50% opportunity buy in the energy market. the reason i'm not buying right now has to do in the physical market, i'm still being offered a tremendous amount of european cargoes to raise capital. you've got on july 1st the potential for an eu ban on iranian imports. after that i agree with jimmy. you have china import a record amount of oil. they are the best crude oil buyers in the world. probably 30 days out. >> i want to know, 30 days from now how low is it going to go? i want to mark my calendar. >> jimmy, that is why i'm not buying it. how low is low? i don't think anyone knows.
how high is high? i don't think anyone knows the answer to that. if they release from the spr i think a lot of longs have been taken out of the marketplace. maybe a dip after 80 bucks. after that washout, new fund flow coming in. i agree with you. it's coming back up. >> tomorrow we'll continue certainly that conversation with not only mark fisher but boone pickens on a special "halftime" we'll remind you about before the end of the show today. one reason for oil's drop. a stronger dollar. jim, you're long the dollar. you're long many currencies right now. but you say it's not a safe haven investment. what do you mean? >> the united states is the l k largest debtor nation in the history of the world. how can you consider that a safe haven? debt is going up a trillion dollars a year. i own the dollar. don't get me wrong. i own the dollar because there's so many problems elsewhere that people are fleeing to the u.s. dollar thinking it's a safe haven p p it's not a safe haven. but they come here so i've come here, too. >> it's a flight to perceived quality, not exactly quality,
what you're saying. if you do have a lot of assets exiting other parts of the world, whether it's europe or perhaps china by some of the bears there, you would think that maybe that would add to some of the strength in the dollar going forward. particularly if you continue to see concerns about what's taking place in europe, right? >> absolutely. that's why i own the u.s. dollar. i bought the u.s. dollar a while ago. i haven't sold it. i may even buy more if the opportunity comes. i don't own the euro. i have no position long or short in the euro. but i put the money -- i used to own the euro. i put it in u.s. dollars, thank goodness. >> i think that was one of the most interesting points you made to me in the green room before we started. that you're not short the euro. explain why. >> i was long the euro until a few weeks ago. reason i'm not short, i guess, is because i'm lazy. i haven't gotten around to it. no, no. there are too many -- everybody's bearish on the dollar. everybody -- i mean, the euro. everybody. scott, i don't like to jump into something when everybody's already there. i'm sitting and watching. if anything, i may buy the euro if the right thing happened.
if the wrong thing happened i might short it. at the moment ifr nothing. coming up on "halftime" we're trading what's trending and showing you how to use it to your trading advantage. plus, trading obamacare with our call of the day. more "halftime report" with jim rogers and the rest of our panel is up next. recently, students from 31 countries took part in a science test. the top academic performers surprised some people. so did the country that came in 17th place. let's raise the bar and elevate our academic standards. let's do what's best for our students-by investing in our teachers.
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you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering, web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account. today on "power lunch" the apple developers conference. tim cook's first as ceo. he kicks off the top of the hour. live detail as they unfold. we'll have an analyst on whether
apple is a buy or not. when the markets focus on pain in spain, the power player says it's asia we need to be concerned about. "power lunch" top of the hour. back to scott. >> look forward to that in a few moment ts. meantime today's call of the day. a looming rules by the supreme court on the health care law isn't scaring citigroup. the company's upgraded a handful of hospital stocks this morning. gayry taylor is the analyst who did just that. he joins us on the fast line today. gary, a nice lift in most of these names. community health is the leader out of the group. you say in the title of your note today greed trumps fear at least in the near term. buy these stocks now you say, why? >> i think we can make an educated risk/reward call in terms of the three scenarios the court may be considering. in two of the three scenarios including the most likely scenario, these stocks trade higher on decision day. only in the circumstance where the court strikes down the entire law would the stocks
trade lower. and we're feeling like that's a lot less likely than we did six months ago. >> you're certainly not selective. i'm looking down the list of your coverage group. at least the ones that i have, i don't know, eight or nine, seven, eight, nine you all have buy ratings on. you like the entire group here. >> this group moves together. we have a thought that maybe we'll hedge our bets a little bit, upgrade what we might perceive to be higher quality names. but the reality is, if the court upholds this law, these stocks are all going to move in a material way. it doesn't make a lot of sense to be on the sidelines. we're all in, so to speak. >> gary, is the -- if you can give us that answer, we know exactly what to do? >> that's a great question. what we're saying is if the court upholds the entire law, these stocks have a chance of doubling over the next 12 months if obama's re-elected. if the court strikes the mandate, upholds the rest of the law we think we have a modest gain in the stocks. we think that encompasses 80% to
90% of the potential outcome. i can't tell you what the court's going to do. we've put our necks out there and said very high probability at least a portion of law is going to be upheld. >> gary, thanks. >> thank you. >> steve grasso, quick trade? >> quick trade. i think the presidential election is just as important as the supreme court hearing on this. and their decision. i think you have to look at that. because if romney wins, all these hospital stocks could just give back everything they just got. >> okay. apple's worldwide developers conference set to kick off in less than 15 minutes. cnbc's jon fortt is live in san fran with what you should be watching for. good to see you. >> reporter: good to see you. there are so many announcements at this year's wwdc. it's a little bit staggering. we haven't seen mac hardware at a wwdc in quite a while. also a number of announcements. not just on ios 6 but updates to i cloud. some apple folks were telling me months ago that now that the software teams know they have icloud to draw on as a resource, we should see that more and more built into app sites.
expect to see more of that today. also facebook integration. facebook stocks seems to be up today perhaps on anticipation they're getting closer to apple. if we see facebook integrated into itunes, into the app store, that could change the way the app eco system works. that would be good for facebook. could be good for developers, too. i've been talking to a number of them about that today, guys. >> look forward to that in about ten minutes' time. coming up on "the halftime report" jim rogers reveals the best way to play the ag boom. it may not be what you expect, next. from around the world...untries ...with the best math scores. ...the united states would be on that list. in 25th place. let's raise academic standards across the nation. let's get back to the head of the class. let's solve this.
welcome back to "halftime." jim? well, you have recently said the world is running out of farmers. you talked about sugar prices relative to where they were several years ago. what are you watching specifically in the space? >> we are running out of the farmers, scott. the average age of farmers in america is 58. we have more people study public raelg relations than agriculture. in australia, average is 58. in canada, the oldest in recorded history. we don't have any farmers. you want to get rich, start an agriculture show or become a farmer. do you know how to drive a tractor? >> i don't. i have been on a combine i think once. >> once? >> more than most city slickers. >> that's true, that's true. if you're competent, it's one of the great, great areas of the
world economy. >> is there a particular commodities looking at the wall? you must be bullish wheat? >> i own all of them. i own all commoditcommodities, agriculture is much better than the others because they're so dirt cheap on a historic basis. >> cortez, i imagine you may have a comment on this. >> i do. i'm a descendant of farmers. i don't want to go back there, jim. isn't your analysis similar poli simplist simplistic. dba, the agriculture etf lost 20% in the last year and a combination of slow and emerging markets and productive american farmers. >> yes, but steve, that's why agriculture prices are so depressed over the last 30 years. everything you said is right. who's going to go in to the fields and produce the stuff if the prices don't go higher? you're not going to go in to the fields so who is? >> capitalism always works. greed works.
people get in to the fields if the prices are right and you are saying that they'll get to that point. >> that's what i'm saying. eventually, it's going to be the farmers driving the lamborghinis and the guys on the floor are going to have to go to iowa and nebraska. going to be desserted. they'll be in the fields making fortunes. >> you hear that, grasso? >> sounds relaxing. with four kids, i could use the space. >> hey, anybody have a trade on the soft commodities? >> well, sure. i mean, i like agco and i like john deere both and on dips here, judge, add both of those two stocks. >> look at the stocks talked about most in the social stratosphere and how to use it to your trading realm. >> let's look at what's trading here on this beautiful stock heat map. technology grabbing the headlines as it always does and zoom in on consumer goods. high end retailers are trending
ahead of an earnings announcement from michael coors tomorrow. joe saying he's going to short coach $64 and looking to enter a long position in to kors earnings tomorrow. a massive short squeeze by end of day. meanwhile, some analysts writing a china slowdown and weakness in europe means slowing sales for high-end retailers. which man bag would you own? >> grasso, since you're carrying one down there, which is it? >> that's right. i'll give it back to you after the close. i'll go to what's working and not the high end here but walmart. every day, a new annual high here. so i would look to probably walmart as a trade versus the other two names. >> wait, steve. you buy walmart at the high? >> yeah. because stock's making new highs usually do what? make new highs and they continue to make new highs. so if you look at the last -- you could have told me that $4 lower from here and still then
thanked me for the profit, right? >> i understand it. this is a different world from my world. you know? i like to buy things and own them for years. chasing something that the high is not my way to make a living. >> totally understand you. in my world, i like to things and sell them 15 minutes or 15 days later as long as i make the profit. the profit's agnostic. >> final trades next on "halftime." our cloud is made of bedrock. concrete. and steel. our cloud is the smartest brains combating the latest security threats. it spans oceans, stretches continents. and is scalable as far as the mind can see. our cloud is the cloud other clouds look up to. welcome to the uppernet. who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%.
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s tio-y siin lxtes zemethan a porsche panamera s. the 429 horsepower genesis r-spec. from hyundai. farm boy grasso, what is your trade? >> sds or a one or two-day hedge. >> treasuries. >> pete's going to update tonight but ohi, judge. >> joey? >> cyh. >> and jim rogers in. >> if goldman sachs is right, raj. this is not quick trades. >> i understand. but that's ag, right? >> yeah, yeah, yeah. >> tomorrow, another big hour. mark fisher, founder and ceoo